A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got something to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
